Educational Attainment (2019 - 2023)

One of the most difficult messages to convey in the housing conversation is that the largest share of people moving to the city are high-income households earning more than 120% AMI; those are households with six figure incomes. The trend impacts everything; it does potentially drive displacement of existing residents as newer households can out-compete existing lower income households, additionally higher income households consume more housing (sq/ft) than lower income households.

Income Cohorts

This trend of urbanization of higher income households is often invisible to existing residents. And it can seem counter-intuitive to many. The cultural expectation that when people succeed they move "out" is still commonly held even though it has not been true in a general sense for ~20 years.

“A 2023 survey from the National Association of Realtors found that 77 percent of respondents would pay a premium to live in a walkable neighborhood, and for Gen Z, that figure shot up to 92 percent." - NAR research, 2023

To help understand this phenomenon of household shift let's look at a highly correlating factor: educational attainment.

Highly skilled workers, the kind who work in fields like advanced medicine and FinTech, had been concentrating in cities for more than a decade prior to the pandemic. But the pandemic changed everything! Right? Post-pandemic the highly-educated can "work from anywhere" and have fled the city to shelter in bucolic subdivisions? No. The concentration of the highly-skilled workers in urban areas has continued.

This is data from 2019 - 2023, jumping over the pandemic until now-ish. The share of the population of the city in the highest categories of education attainment has only increased. The numbers are especially notable if the census' determination that the city's population has plateaued in recent years is correct. The city's growth in the share highly skilled workers easily surpasses that of the county, the state, and the nation overall.

Change in Educational Attainment

Yes, someone working in FinTech or as an Associate Veterinarian ($130,000/yr - $180,000/yr) can afford that $3,200/mo rent or housing payment. This is a bitter pill for someone struggling to afford housing, but denying the reality of the situation helps nobody. It has never been more important to allow, and invest in, new housing types: Accessory Dwelling Units, mutli-family infill, micro-units, and, well, every option there is. Now.

And there is an upside: that Associate Veterinarian and her partner who works in Fintech will be paying $3,900/yr - $5,400/yr in income taxes to the city's general fund which the elected representatives of the people can then choose how to invest back into the city and its residents. We want everyone to have safe and affordable [to them] housing, in beautiful neighborhoods, with access to all the amenities urban living should provide. If we are smart, and if we have empowered city leadership, those households moving into the city can help make that a reality.

The Data

2019

Attainment National Michigan Kent County Grand Rapids
High school diploma 51,584,272 1,732,283 91,611 25,593
GED or alternative credential 8,898,081 273,698 12,086 3,914
College, 1yr or more years, no degree 31,007,878 1,056,955 68,922 19,631
Associate's degree 19,381,937 648,794 38,524 10,099
Bachelor's degree 45,730,479 1,252,685 104,451 32,973
Master's degree 20,555,510 606,220 40,427 10,574
Doctorate degree 3,323,850 85,443 5,342 1,669

2023

Attainment National Michigan Kent County Grand Rapids
High school diploma 50,835,531 1,657,737 84,788 20,567
GED or alternative credential 9,270,393 284,185 11,931 4,520
College, 1yr or more years, no degree 28,660,664 994,014 56,470 17,663
Associate's degree 20,469,668 677,286 41,526 10,005
Bachelor's degree 50,567,878 1,395,186 123,437 34,694
Master's degree 23,772,531 666,196 48,088 13,884
Doctorate degree 3,987,775 97,166 6,915 2,671

The Delta

The winner of each category is bold.

Category Grand Rapids Kent County Michigan USA
College, 1yr or more years, no degree -0.98% -1.77% -0.63% -0.72%
Associate's degree -0.05% +0.27% +0.29% +0.33%
Bachelor's degree +0.86% +1.23% +1.43% +1.47%
Master's degree +1.65% +0.84% +0.60% +0.98%
Doctorate degree +0.50% +0.18% +0.12% +0.20%

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