Predictions 2024

Submitted by whitemice on Mon, 12/16/2024 - 18:09

Over on the ancient forum site UrbanPlanet.org there is 👉a thread where regular participants make predictions👈 at the new year for the upcoming year, and review their predictions from the previous year. Each year proves that predictions are a perilous business. It is all for fun. With 2024 now in the bag I will tally my score to lend credence to the notion that prediction making is a fool's errand.

I'm tallying using the following rankings: Nailed it ⚒️ (3 points) - Win 👍 (2 points) - Eh, Maybe?🖕 (1 points) - Wash 🤷 (0 points) - Near, but not really 👇 (-1 points) - Fail 👎 (-2 points) - Epic Fail ⚠️ (-3 points). Just being correct would be a score of 28; with "nailed it" allowing for a little recovery from error.

Prediction#1: The city will continue to see a frustrating lack of high-density development. No project over 10 stories will break ground.

👍 (+2)

No project broke ground, so that's a win (+2). We saw a few announcements which may result in larger developments. Obviously there was the Three Towers project by the Fulmar group. As the year slid into home base I began to wonder if there would be an announcement concerning the tower on the West Side in relation to the stadium; but it didn't happen. Also there has been no announcement related to development on the amphitheater podium.

What will the impact on development be from America's political temper-tantrum? That is going to be the open question for cities in 2025.

Prediction#2: The Sligh redevelopment project is dead, no construction or demolition will occur.

👍 (+2)

The developer spent the year in court fighting with their bank. Perhaps it is for the best as their initial plan was significantly superior to their later plan.

Prediction#3:Nothing will continue to happen with the Keeler building (56 Division)

👍 (+2)

A few rumors circulated, briefly, and then the silence returned.

Prediction#4: There will be an eerie silence regarding the Whitewater project; it's dead Jim, but nobody will admit it.

👎 fail (-2)

It is no longer a "whitewater" project, so I am not calling this an Epic Fail. Also who knows the future of the project following America's temper tantrum. But, it is not dead. Actual things have been done.

Prediction#5: The stealth [relative to the level of drama whipped up for "Housing Now", circa 2018] Zoning reforms will pass in the first quarter. They will largely, but not completely, eliminate residential parking requirements. ADUs will be by-right in at least TN zones. Unrelated household members will be increased from six to eight. Substantial reform for Infill Development (2-12 units) will be sacrificed on the alter of "Unintended Consequences" and parking fear, something will still be passed but it will be so limited as to be meaningless.

🤷 wash (0)

The final proposals were passed in their entirety without amendment. OTOH, parking reform was very limited; with the only elimination being for up to six-unit developments on two street classifications (Link & Network Residential). There are effectively zero lots on those street classifications which allow for more than three units as the lot size requirement of 2,000sq/ft unit is still in effect. A developer needs an 8,000sq/ft lot for a quadplex and a 12,000sq/ft lot for a sixplex. It is a good step, yet pragmatically it is nearly meaningless. Our City Commission continues to talk in terms of “crisis” and then play small ball.

If these changes had been during the l-o-n-g period of extremely low interest rates people could have tapped into their home-equity and built ADUs. The math was obvious at ~3% interest rates. In 2025, with current interest rates and the level of political uncertainty? Nah.

Additionally the transition from Residential Building Code (RBC) to Commercial Building Code (CBC) which occurs at three units adds a substantial regulatory and financial hit which overwhelms the value of a third unit. The math will almost never work. Then, as soon as you get to four units the requirement for an 8,000sq/ft shuts that down. These reforms were a bit of a false gift, and too little far too late. With a new mayor fingers crossed we will have a city government that takes the l-o-n-g running housing crisis seriously.

The allowance for ADUs in conjunction with duplexes - due to that large lot requirement - and the restoration of ADU height to 25ft is likely the most significant component of the reforms.

Prediction#6: The Rapid, after cutting service as of January 1st 2024, will have a second round of service cuts mid-year. Relative to revenue hours ridership will continue to recover, as it has been.

Fail 👎 (-2 points)

Shortly after this prediction (February) some, not all, service was restored, Daytime frequent service has been reduced to the Silverline, the #4 (Eastern), and the #9 (Alpine). But there have been no additional service cuts.

Yet ridership has steadily increased, so the prediction is not an epic fail. Ridership has now surpassed 60% of pre-pandemic counts. If adjusted for the reduction in service, ridership relative to revenue miles, I suspect this is approaching full recovery. A provider who operates less service will have less ridership, and we have less service than in 2019.

The hope that the Michigan State Legislature would reform SOAR and commit some substantive funds to infrastructure investment was a brief hopeful moment. Yet again Michigan Democrats failed to represent their constituency and snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Governor Whitmer is term-limited, so we will have an open election in 2026. Here is to hoping the Michigan Democrats can find a leader with more vision than something about self-charging highways.

Prediction#7: The DASH will not achieve seven day a week service.

⚠️ epic fail (-3)

A prediction which went down in only 29 days! The DASH resumed seven (7) day a week service on January 29th, 2024. With a new - relatively unknown - City Commissioners, change in leadership at MobileGR, and city staff's dauntless commitment to an austerity / constant-fiscal-crisis mentality I did not expect as much commitment to the DASH service as appeared. There was also the question of if the Rapid, even with diligent effort, could resolve their staffing crisis.

Kudos all around, happy to be very wrong.

And then there is DASH ridership, which I would never have predicted. October 2024 ridership was +70% compared to October 2023. The growth in ridership has been shocking, even to a transit optimist.

Prediction#8: The amphitheater will break ground and development will rapidly proceed. A private parking developer will announce a nearby ramp. Rumors about adjacent development will be intense and constant, but nothing substantive will emerge until the last quarter.

🤷 wash (0)

The construction fences went up the first week of May. Yet there has been no private developer expressing interest in building a parking ramp, instead the city has decided it will pitch in for a 340 space parking ramp podium to the tune of $88,000 a space. A mind-boggling choice on behalf of the city, but car brain is going to car brain. Somewhat more surprising was the absence of a rumor mill related to the area. Perhaps the Factory Yards projects is sufficient to absorb the development energy; which is disappointing.

Over at the Three Towers site the developer is planning a scandalous amount of parking. However that is clearly in direct relation to the office tower, the user of which even received bespoke zoning reforms related to parking maximums.

Prediction#9:Corewell will drag their feet in Monroe North, insisting on surface parking lots, the city will - to everyone's surprise - stand their ground for once, and Corewell will finally a produce a not-complete-trash development plan by the end of 2024. But they will not have broken ground on any additional development.

Fail 👎 (-2 points)

Turns out the city did not need to stand its ground. For whatever reason Corewell's development department has gone dark. There has been a laundry list of management changes, some financial drama, and there are rumors of an organization overwhelmed by the management of its acquisitions.

There is no plan; good or bad.

Prediction#10:The city will forge ahead with additional parking capacity, mostly likely the Fulton/Ottawa or Library lot. There will not be a 3rd party development agreement for Fulton/Ottawa.

🖕 (1 points)

Less happened than I expected. None of the projects moved forward beyond renderings. There is a plan now for the Library Lot, we'll see what happens.

Still, Mayor Bliss will leave office with her mantle of The Parking Mayor held high. She has the 2,500 spaces likely to be added via the Three Towers development in her column, as well as the $30,000,000 in new public debt for the 340 spaces are the amphitheater, as a capstone to a revolution in parking development.

Prediction#11: By the end of the year Kent County will announce that they are paving most of John Ball Park for parking.

⚒️ Nailed it! (+3)

Ugh. In an era of low public trust in institutions this was just the process we needed. 😑

On 2024-02-08 a presentation was made 👉by the Rapid about their transit master plan to the Kent County Commission👈. It is a tough watch; anyone who has notions about county wide or regional transit being on the table . . . nope. If someone created a Suburban Trope Bingo Card it would make watching this easier. It is certainly not safe as a drinking game, don't do that to yourself.

Prediction#12: Less than five miles of protected bike lanes will be constructed.

⚒️ Win! (+2). Honestly, this one felt too easy, I almost feel bad for taking the points.

Prediction#13: Employers will continue to push back against Work-From-Home, to the benefit of downtown restaurants and retailers, as well as city income tax revenue. DGRi will report at least three months of record downtown activity.

Fail 👎 (-2 points)

Corewell, Acrisure, et al are pushing the return to office.

Downtown has also captured a collection of new headquarters or satellite offices: BDO, PhotoniCare Inc, Lakewood Construction Co, . . .

While the counts are trending in the direction I predicted they are not there yet. I remain confident that with return-to-office and new office tenants that 2025 will surpass 2019 in employee activity.

Prediction#14: Urban retail will be a winner in 2024; at least twice as many retail outlets will open in downtown as will close. Harder to quantify, but the retail scene in the neighborhoods will also continue to improve. The Wealthy St Corridor will achieve zero store-front vacancy.

Near, but not really 👇 (-1 points)

Thirteen (13) new storefront business opened downtown in 2024: D’Vine Nails & Spa, Euphoria Wellness, Mane Society, Water Street Gallery, Allstate Insurance Agency, Shinola Detroit, Grammotones, GVSU Laker Store, Rewind Vintage, Tone Chasers Music, Cellar Bird Bookstore, Greyson Clothiers, and Devil May Duel.

Downtown closed the year with an 18% storefront vacancy rate or 73 storefronts, with the highest concentration in Heartside with 61% of the vacancies. Heartside also has the highest number of storefronts at 186; which is 48% of all the storefronts downtown (384 total).

Storefronts continue to open on Wealth St, including a new building, as well as Midtown and Creston. However several renovations on Wealthy St appear to have stalled, zero storefront vacancy on that corridor was not achieved.

Score

And the final tally is:

0 (0% of 28)

I proved my point about predictions. 🙂

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predictions
fun